Mathematic Analysis of a SIHV COVID-19 Pandemic Model Taking Into Account a Vaccination Strategy

Humanity is currently living a true nightmare never seen before due to the pandemic caused by COVID-19 disease, scientific researchers are working day and night to find an ideal vaccine that eradicates this pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a SIHV pandemic model taking into account a vaccination strategy. For this aim, we consider a model with four compartments that describes the interaction between the susceptible cases S, the real infected cases I, the hospitalized, confirmed infected cases H and the vaccinated-treated individuals V. We establish the local stability of our model, depending on the basic reproduction number, by using the Routh-Hurwitz theorem. We perform some numerical simulations in order to confirm our theoretical results and discuss the effect of the rate of vaccination on controlling the spread of COVID-19. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Vaccine hesitancy in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Background: Vaccination has a tremendous impact on health at the regional and global levels, however, the tendency for people to hesitate on vaccination has been increasing in the past few decades. Aims: We assessed vaccine hesitancy and its determinants in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Methods: We conducted a literature review to assess peer-reviewed articles published up to March 2021 on vaccine hesitancy in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach. A search was conducted via PubMed and 29 articles were identified. After the removal of duplicates and irrelevant articles, 14 studies remained relevant and were used for the review. Results: Vaccine hesitancy in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries ranged from 11% to 71%. Differences in rates were noted for vaccine type, with COVID-19 vaccine having the highest reported hesitancy (70.6%). The likelihood of accepting vaccination was associated with previous individual acceptance of vaccine, specifically the seasonal influenza vaccine. The most common determinants of vaccine hesitancy were distrust in vaccine safety and concerns about side-effects. Healthcare workers were among the main sources of information and recommendations about vaccination, but 17-68% of them were vaccine-hesitant. The majority of the healthcare workers had never received any training on addressing vaccine hesitancy among patients. Conclusions: Vaccine hesitancy is prevalent among the publics and healthcare workers in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. There is a need to continually monitor perceptions and knowledge about vaccines and vaccination in these countries to better inform interventions to improve vaccine uptake in the sub-region.

What has vaccination against COVID-19 in CKD patients taught us?

Effective vaccination strategies are of crucial importance to protecting patients who are vulnerable to infections, such as patients with chronic kidney disease. This is because the decreased efficiency of the immune system in chronic kidney disease impairs vaccine-induced immunisation. COVID-19 has prompted investigation of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in chronic kidney disease and in kidney transplant recipients in an effort to improve efficacy. The seroconversion rate after two vaccine doses is reduced, especially in kidney transplant recipients. Furthermore, although the seroconversion rate in chronic kidney disease patients is as high as in healthy subjects, anti-spike antibody titres are lower than in healthy vaccinated individuals, and these titres decrease rapidly. Although the vaccine-induced anti-spike antibody titre correlates with neutralising antibody levels and with protection against COVID-19, the protective prognostic significance of their titre is decreased due to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants other than the Wuhan index virus against which the original vaccines were produced. Cellular immunity is also relevant, and because of cross-reactivity to the spike protein, epitopes of different viral variants confer protection against newly emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2. A multi-dose vaccination strategy is the most effective way to obtain a sufficient serological response. In kidney transplant recipients, a 5-week discontinuation period from antimetabolite drugs in concomitance with vaccine administration may also increase the vaccine's efficacy. The newly acquired knowledge obtained from COVID-19 vaccination is of general interest for the success of other vaccinations in chronic kidney disease patients.

Model-Based Optimization of Vaccination Strategies in Different Phases of Pandemic Virus Spread

This paper aims at applying optimal control principles to investigate optimal vaccination strategies in different phases of a pandemic. Background of the study is that many countries have started their vaccination procedures against the COVID-19 disease in the beginning of 2021, but supply shortages for the vaccines prevented that everyone could be vaccinated immediately. At the beginning of 2022, in contrast, the vaccine supply was ample, but the effectiveness of different existing vaccines to avoid infection by new virus variants was in doubt, as well as the acceptance of booster doses decreased over time. To account for these effects, two formulations of optimization tasks based on different epidemic models are proposed in this paper. The solution of these tasks determines optimal distribution strategies for available vaccines, and optimized vaccination schemes to reduce the need of booster doses for later phase. Effectiveness of these strategies compared with other popular strategies (as applied in practice) is demonstrated through a series of simulations © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Fractional Order Modeling of Predicting COVID-19 with Isolation and Vaccination Strategies in Morocco

In this work, we present a model that uses the fractional order Caputo derivative for the novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with different hospitalization strategies for severe and mild cases and incorporate an awareness program. We generalize the SEIR model of the spread of COVID-19 with a private focus on the transmissibility of people who are aware of the disease and follow preventative health measures and people who are ignorant of the disease and do not follow preventive health measures. Moreover, individuals with severe, mild symptoms and asymptomatically infected are also considered. The basic reproduction number (R0) and local stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) in terms of R0 are investigated. Also, the uniqueness and existence of the solution are studied. Numerical simulations are performed by using some real values of parameters. Furthermore, the immunization of a sample of aware susceptible individuals in the proposed model to forecast the effect of the vaccination is also considered. Also, an investigation of the effect of public awareness on transmission dynamics is one of our aim in this work. Finally, a prediction about the evolution of COVID-19 in 1000 days is given. For the qualitative theory of the existence of a solution, we use some tools of nonlinear analysis, including Lipschitz criteria. Also, for the numerical interpretation, we use the Adams-Moulton-Bashforth procedure. All the numerical results are presented graphically. © 2023 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.

Heterologous Vector-mRNA Based SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Strategy Appears Superior to a Homologous Vector-Based Vaccination Scheme in German Healthcare Workers Regarding Humoral SARS-CoV-2 Response Indicating a High Boosting Effect by mRNA Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal humoral SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2) immunity for up to 15 months due to vaccination, the efficacy of vaccination strategies (homologous, vector-vector versus heterologous, vector-mRNA), the influence of vaccination side effects, and the infection rate in German healthcare workers need to be investigated. METHODS: In this study, 103 individuals vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 were enrolled to examine their anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-N- and anti-RBD/S1-Ig levels. A total of 415 blood samples in lithium heparin tubes were prospectively obtained, and a structured survey regarding medical history, type of vaccine, and vaccination reactions was conducted. RESULTS: All participants demonstrated a humoral immune response, among whom no values decreased below the positivity cutoff. Five to six months after the third vaccination, three participants showed anti-RBD/S1 antibodies of less than 1000 U/mL. We observed higher levels for heterologous mRNA-/vector-based combinations compared to pure vector-based vaccination after the second vaccination, which is harmonized after a third vaccination with the mRNA-vaccine only in both cohorts. The incidence of vaccine breakthrough in a highly exposed cohort was 60.3%. CONCLUSION: Sustained long-term humoral immunity was observed, indicating the superiority of a heterologous mRNA-/vector-based combination compared to pure vector-based vaccination. There was longevity of anti-RBD/S1 antibodies of at least 4 and up to 7 months without external stimulus. Regarding vaccination reactogenity, the occurrence of local symptoms as pain at the injection site was increased after the first mRNA application compared to the vector-vector cohort with a general decrease in adverse events at later vaccination time points. Overall, a correlation between the humoral vaccination response and vaccination side effects was not observed. Despite the high prevalence of vaccine breakthroughs, these only occurred in the later course of the study when more infectious variants, which are, however, associated with milder courses, were present. These results provide insights into vaccine-related serologic responses, and the study should be expanded using additional vaccine doses and novel variants in the future.

Analysis, predicting, and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq through SIR model

Using the standard SIR model with three unknown biological parameters, the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq has been studied. The least squares method and real data on confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries over a long time (455 days) were used to estimate these parameters. In this regards, first, we find the basic reproductive number R0 is 0.9422661124 which indicates and predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq will gradually subside until it is eradicated permanently with time. Additionally, we develop an optimal vaccination strategy with the goal of reducing COVID-19 infections and preventing their spread in Iraq, thereby putting a clear picture of control this pandemic.

Exploring epidemic voluntary vaccinating behavior based on information-driven decisions and benefit-cost analysis.

A complex dynamic interplay exists between epidemic transmission and vaccination, which is significantly influenced by human behavioral responses. We construct a research framework combining both the function modeling of the cumulative global COVID-19 information and limited individuals' information processing capacity employing the Gompertz model for growing processes. Meanwhile, we built a function representing the decision to get vaccinated following benefit-cost analysis considered the choices made by people in each scenario have an influence from altruism, free-riding and immunity escaping capacity. Through the mean-field calculation analysis and using a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method with constant step size, we obtain plots from numerical simulations. We found that only when the total number of infectious individuals proves sufficient to reach and exceed a certain level will the individuals face a better trade-off in determining whether to get vaccinated against the diseases based on that information. Besides, authoritative media have a higher decisive influence and efforts should be focused on extending the duration of vaccine protection, which is beneficial to inhibit the outbreaks of epidemics. Our work elucidates that reducing the negative payoff brought about by the free-riding behavior for individuals or improving the positive payoff from the altruistic motivation helps to control the disease in cultures that value social benefits, vaccination willingness is generally stronger. We also note that at a high risk of infection, the decision of vaccination is highly correlated with global epidemic information concerning COVID-19 infection, while at times of lower risk, it depends on the game theoretic vaccine strategy. The findings demonstrate that improving health literacy, ensuring open and transparent information on vaccine safety and efficacy as a public health priority can be an effective strategy for mitigating inequalities in health education, as well as alleviating the phenomenon that immunity escaping abilities is more likely to panic by populations with high levels of education. In addition, prosocial nudges are great ways to bridge these immunity gaps that can contribute to implementing government public health control measures, creating a positive feedback loop.

Combining Influenza and COVID-19 Booster Vaccination Strategy to Improve Vaccination Uptake Necessary for Managing the Health Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: The uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccines has been significantly low. Therefore, it is questionable whether combining the COVID-19 booster vaccines with influenza vaccines can increase the population's interest in taking such vaccines and manage the health pandemic effectively. Methodology: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a synthesis of the findings and summary of a total of 30 research articles based on the topic, 'combining influenza and COVID-19 booster vaccination strategy' was undertaken. The research articles were identified from three databases, namely, PubMed, Cochran Library, and Google Scholar using specific keywords and inclusion criteria. However, research articles that were not peer-reviewed and not published in English were excluded from the systematic review and meta-analysis. The average risk ratio of the intervention group getting a combination of COVID-19 booster and influenza vaccines from the samples of the included studies was 0.78 with regard to a 95% CI. Such risk ratio is based on the null hypothesis of the current study that combining COVID-19 booster and influenza vaccines can increase the uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccines. On the other hand, the heterogeneity between such studies was I2 = 35%, while the statistical significance of their findings occurred at p < 0.05. The average p-value of the included research studies was p = 0.62 with the proportion of studies with significant p-values being 63.33% which is equivalent to 19 out of 30 studies. Therefore, the null hypothesis was not rejected in more than half of the studies. Results: A synthesis of the chosen research articles revealed that when influenza and COVID-19 booster vaccines are combined, there is potential for an increase in the uptake of the latter, mainly because many populations have already been accustomed to taking influenza vaccines on an annual basis. Conclusions: In this way, through such findings, medical health experts can make informed decisions to increase the population's willingness to receive the COVID-19 booster vaccines.

Using Social Interactions to Redefine Vaccination Strategy

The pandemics are believed to change the human perception and significantly affect the socio-economical, environmental and psychological outlook of affected people. The recent Covid-19 pandemic has challenged the state of art healthcare systems and has put modern day technology driven healthcare system to a task. While the doctors, biotechnologist, epidemiologist and technologist put their heart in, to model and study the impact of Covid-19;the researchers were tirelessly working on identifying a vaccine that can efficiently put an end to the pandemic. The mass vaccination has always seemed a solution to communicable diseases, pandemics and endemics. The authors believe an efficient vaccination strategy / model is needed to reach the major population in least possible time. It will facilitate to reach the goal of mass vaccination and decrease the spread of virus. The paper presents a PageRank based vaccination model that utilizes the depth first search to traverse a social graph that proves to converge faster than most widely used Random Walk. The idea is to prioritize the vaccination of the most connected individual who is more likely to be a victim or be a super-spreader. The paper also studies the hesitation and acceptance of vaccination among various communities. © 2022 IEEE.

Discrete event simulation of a drive-through COVID-19 mass vaccination model: senior population prioritization strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the normal operations of countries around the world, which applied different containment and mitigation policies, such as mask-wearing, social distancing, quarantine, and lockdowns, to limit the spread of the virus. More recent mitigation efforts include vaccination strategies, since various vaccines have been authorized for emergency use for the prevention of COVID-19. In fact, vaccination is one of the best proactive mitigation strategies against the virus spread. Mass vaccination strategies have been undertaken by multiple research and development teams in the past when the public needed to be vaccinated on a large scale due to a pandemic, such as the seasonal flu or H1N1. Drive through vaccination, in particular, is more convenient and safer than walk-in vaccinations in clinics due the nature of the contagious virus. In this paper, we present the implementation of a discrete event simulation model of a drive through clinic for mass vaccinations of patients, while prioritizing the senior population. The simulation output is examined in terms of average waiting time in the queue to get vaccinated, number of patients getting vaccinated per week, and utilization of the medical resources. The results are expected to provide insights into the allocation of medical resources across lanes and prioritization strategies for the senior population to achieve higher vaccination rates, while reducing the waiting time in queue. © 2021 The Authors.

Differential Evolution Based Simulated Annealing Method for Vaccination Optimization Problem

Infectious diseases pose a severe threat to human health, especially the outbreak of COVID-19. After the infectious disease enters the stage of large-scale epidemics, vaccination is an effective way to control infectious diseases. However, when formulating a vaccination strategy, some restrictions still exist, such as insufficient vaccines or insufficient government funding to afford everyone's vaccination. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a vaccination optimization problem with the lowest total cost based on the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, which is called the Lowest Cost Of Vaccination Strategy (LCOVS) problem. We first establish a mathematical model of the LCOVS problem. Then we propose a practical Differential Evolution based Simulated Annealing (DESA) method to solve the mathematical optimization problem. We use the simulated annealing algorithm (SA) as a local optimizer for the results obtained by the differential evolution algorithm (DE) and optimized the mutation and crossover steps of DE. Finally, the experimental results on the six data sets demonstrate that our proposed DESA can achieve a more low-cost vaccination strategy than the baseline algorithms. IEEE

Full seroconversion in initial non-responders with higher antibody levels after heterologous COVID-19 vaccination schedule.

Antibody testing after COVID-19 vaccination is generally not recommended. Here, we present the results of a retrospective study, in which we analyzed antibody levels before and after the first dose of the ChAdOx1 vector vaccine. We identified 5% non-responders (43.6 ± 10.6 years; females: 41%) and 3.4% low-responders (44.2 ± 10.1 years; females: 64%) after the first dose. Of these, 61 individuals received a timely second dose either with a homologous (ChAdOx1/ChAdOx1) or heterologous (ChAdOx1/mRNA-1273) schedule. All vaccinees achieved positive S1-specific IgG titers to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain after the second dose, but antibody levels as well as neutralization titers against the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain were higher after the heterologous schedule. However, Omicron-specific neutralizing antibodies were not detectable after two doses in either group, indicating that a third vaccine dose is needed to enhance cross-reactive antibodies against currently circulating and emerging variants of concern.

The Uncertain Times of COVID Mass Vaccine Deliveries: from Start-up to Steady-State

Mass vaccination campaigns have been adopted throughout the world as a major tool to stop the spread of COVID or at least abate its lethal consequences. Smart vaccination strategies have been proposed to make the most efficient use of the scarce resources (e.g., medical and nursing staff) and achieve vaccination aims (i.e., vaccinating as many people as possible in the shortest possible time). However, smart strategies may fail if vaccine deliveries are erratic or do not exhibit even statistical regularity. In this paper, we perform a statistical analysis of up-to-date vaccine delivery data to uncover regularities and use them to draw a probabilistic model of vaccine deliveries that may help optimize and evaluate smart vaccination strategies. We find that for two out of three vaccine manufacturing companies, deliveries concentrate on one or at most two days over a week, though the actual day may be modelled by an arithmetic distribution. © 2022 IEEE.

Assessing Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies and Post-vaccination Reopening Policies for COVID-19 Control Using SEIR Modeling Approach.

As the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, it is badly needed to develop vaccination guidelines to prioritize the vaccination delivery in order to effectively stop COVID-19 epidemic and minimize the loss. We evaluated the effect of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of infections and deaths using an SEIR model, considering the age structure and social contact patterns for different age groups for each of different countries. In general, the vaccination priority should be given to those younger people who are active in social contacts to minimize the number of infections, while the vaccination priority should be given to the elderly to minimize the number of deaths. But this principle may not always apply when the interaction of age structure and age-specific social contact patterns is complicated. Partially reopening schools, workplaces or households, the vaccination priority may need to be adjusted accordingly. Prematurely reopening social contacts could initiate a new outbreak or even a new pandemic out of control if the vaccination rate and the detection rate are not high enough. Our result suggests that it requires at least nine months of vaccination (with a high vaccination rate > 0.1%) for Italy and India before fully reopening social contacts in order to avoid a new pandemic.

Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model.

The vaccines are considered to be important for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, considering the limited vaccine supply within an extended period of time in many countries where COVID-19 vaccine booster shot are taken and new vaccines are developed to suppress the mutation of virus, designing an effective vaccination strategy is extremely important to reduce the number of deaths and infections. Then, the simulations were implemented to study the relative reduction in morbidity and mortality of vaccine allocation strategies by using the proposed model and actual South Africa's epidemiological data. Our results indicated that in light of South Africa's demographics, vaccinating older age groups (>60 years) largely reduced the cumulative deaths and the "0-20 first" strategy was the most effective way to reduce confirmed cases. In addition, "21-30 first" and "31-40 first" strategies have also had a positive effect. Partial vaccination resulted in lower numbers of infections and deaths under different control measures compared with full vaccination in low-income countries. In addition, we analyzed the sensitivity of daily testing volume and infection rate, which are critical to optimize vaccine allocation. However, comprehensive reduction in infections was mainly affected by the vaccine proportion of the target age group. An increase in the proportion of vaccines given priority to "0-20" groups always had a favorable effect, and the prioritizing vaccine allocation among the "60+" age group with 60% of the total amount of vaccine consistently resulted in the greatest reduction in deaths. Meanwhile, we observed a significant distinction in the effect of COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies under varying priority strategies on relative reductions in the effective reproduction number. Our results could help evaluate to control measures performance and the improvement of vaccine allocation strategy for COVID-19 epidemic.

Delivering an Online Course on ‘COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign: Administration in Safety of the Anti SARS-COV 2/COVID-19 VACCINE’ for Nursing Students at Italian Universities

Many Italian universities had numerous nursing students attending hospital wards for administrating anti SARS-COV 2/COVID-19 vaccines. The training of nursing students was necessary to facilitate good practices, disseminate knowledge about anti SARS-COV 2/COVID-19 vaccines. On 22 December 2021, the Italian National Institute of Health (NIH) created a course that aimed to promote the anti-SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccination strategy in the country, providing the basic skills, tools and technical-scientific contents necessary to guarantee all phases of the vaccination campaign, including the safe administration of vaccines and counteract vaccination hesitation through the involvement and informed participation of health and social health personnel towards the population. The purpose of this paper was to describe the method used by the Sapienza University of Rome in delivering the Italian NIH course nursing students at Italian universities. The research group in charge of delivering the course decided to use the Google Classroom platform. From the 03/02/2022 to 25/03/2022, 3154 students from 46 Italian universities attended the course. This paper represents a clear advantage in the field of e-learning, not only because it describes an effective method for delivering a course to many students but also because it demonstrates how health professions students can be protected while allowing them to continue or restart internships in health facilities more safely and with more awareness. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Comparison of Indonesian and India Government Vaccination Policy Campaigns via Twitter Social Media

The covid-19 pandemic that attacks the whole world cannot be separated from Indonesia and India, there are many cases of covid in these two countries, this must be anticipated in terms of giving vaccines, of course Indonesia and India must have quite difficult challenges in the vaccination program, this requires a Policy Campaign Vaccination via Twitter Social Media, This study aims to analyze and determine the use of Twitter social media as a medium for the Indonesian and Indian Government Policy Campaigns in providing information to optimize vaccination strategies in relation to the start of the campaign, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedule, vaccination rate, and vaccine efficiency in Indonesia. each country. The research method combines qualitative analysis with secondary data collected from the Indonesian government’s social media accounts used are @kemenkesri and @bnpb_indonesia while the Indian government twitter accounts are @mohfw_india and @pib_india. To visualize the data analysis, Nvivo12 plus software was used, specifically the Twitter Sociogram data collection tool. Based on these findings, the Indonesian and Indian governments were successful in their Vaccination Policy Campaign through Twitter Social Media. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Spreading Infection Simulation in Japan Based on SIRVD Model Considering COVID-19 Vaccine

As of Feb. 2021, COVID-19 is still spreading. To overcome this infectious disease, COVID-19 vaccines are being developed around the world. In Japan, inoculation of COVID-19 vaccines to people will be starting soon (as of Feb. 2021). However, desirable vaccination strategies are not clear. Therefore, we investigate the relationship between vaccination strategies and COVID-19 spreading using positive-case data in Japan. The method is SIRVD (Susceptible Infected Recovered Vaccination Death) model, which can represent vaccinated persons. Moreover, we discuss desirable vaccination strategies based on the results. © 2022 Japan Industrial Management Association. All rights reserved.

Health technology assessment to employ COVID-19 serological tests as companion diagnostics in the vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVES: In scenarios of vaccine scarcity or contexts of organizational complexity, it is necessary to define prioritization strategies for allocating vaccine doses in compliance with the criterion of equity and efficiency of health resources. In this context, the COVIDIAGNOSTIX project, based on the health technology assessment (HTA), assessed the role of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests as a companion diagnostic in the definition of the vaccination strategies for the vaccine administration. To guarantee evidence support for health policy choices, two different vaccine strategies were analyzed, one based on administering the vaccine booster dose to the entire population (VACCINE strategy) and the other based on allocation criteria (TEST&VACCINE strategy). METHODS: The decision-oriented HTA (DoHTA) method, integrated with specific modeling and simulation techniques, helped define the perimeter to make health policy choices. RESULTS: The processing of the scores attributed to the key performance indicators concerning all the evaluation domains shows a performance of 94.34% for the TEST&VACCINE strategy and 83.87% for the VACCINE strategy. CONCLUSIONS: TEST&VACCINE strategy can be the most advantageous in various scenarios due to greater speed from an operational and an economic point of view. The assessment schemes defined by COVIDIAGNOSTIX (i.e., technologies/intended use/settings) can easily and quickly be exported and adapted to respond to similar health "policy questions".